October 24, 2007, Matthew Cochrane, Is a Vote for Mike Huckabee a Vote Wasted?
It’s not often I take the step of creating a whole new post to respond to a reader’s comment. Usually, when I feel the need to respond to a reader, I will simply post a comment of my own and move on. However, since the comment in question reflects a growing trend among evangelicals, I thought it deserved a bit more attention than a mere comment could ever render.
I’ve been hyping Huckabee here for the past few months and it’s not something I have done lightly or flippantly. Our country is at a series of morally consequential crossroads that will require a strong and competent leadership to successfully navigate. America must decide if it wants to reclaim its Judeo-Christian values, the root of its glory, or forsake them for secular, "progressive" values. These are the two polar opposite directions America is being pulled and, eventually, its going to break predominantly in one of these directions or another.
I am personally convinced that Huckabee is the exact man to lead in such a time. I’ve highlighted these reasons in the past and I’m sure I will do so again. The main question I see among evangelical Christians is not whether Huckabee is capable or competent or everything they desire in a presidential candidate, but if he can actually win the Republican nomination and general election.
At the end of my “The Impending Pro-Life Dilemma” post, where I stated pro-life voters needed to stand for the sanctity of life principle and not vote for a pro-choice candidate from either party, Stephen commented:
“Everyone’s assuming that Giuliani is going to win the Republican primary. Instead of asking ourselves if we should vote for him or some other third party candidate, we ought to be asking ourselves how we can get Giuliani to lose the primary. How can we get a pro-life presidential candidate to win that election? Two things: 1. We have to pray. Pray. Pray. 2. Who is Giuliani’s number one greatest threat in the republican race? It’s Mitt Romney. Romney is pro-life, and has a good war and foreign policy, and has a good illegal immigration stance, and is conservative in many ways that Giuliani is not. If the same 14% of voters that would otherwise vote for a third party candidate would vote for Romney in the primary then that would easily make the difference between having this dilemma in the first place and not having it at all. Don’t get me wrong. I like Mike Huckabee too. But it would be too risky to vote for him in the primary when everyone else is voting for Romney or Giuliani. If we all put our support behind Romney, he will have a better chance of defeating Giuliani then Huckabee and definitely Hillary.”
First, let me say that, inherent within a democratic political process, there is an unending process of compromise – on behalf of the voters and lawmakers. As voters we constantly have to weigh our options between voting for our own ideal candidate and voting for a candidate with a realistic chance of being elected. This is the sentiment Stephen, and countless others, have expressed regarding Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. For instance, Bob Jones III, president of the Christian fundamentalist Bob Jones University, recently endorsed Mitt Romney for president. “If it turns out to be Giuliani and Hillary we've got two pro-choice candidates, and that would be a disaster,” Jones stated. “I'm not voting for a preacher. I'm voting for a president. It boils down to who can best represent conservative American beliefs, not religious beliefs.”
I don’t necessarily disagree with either statement. I would much rather vote for Romney than either Giuliani or any current Democratic frontrunner. The only thing I do disagree with is the timing. Last time I checked it was still October with several months before the first vote is cast. My question, then, is: Why compromise so easily and so early?
The fact remains that Mike Huckabee can still win. Is he an underdog? Yes. Are the odds stacked against him? Yes. But does he still possess a realistic chance of capturing the Republican nomination? Yes!
In fact there are several reasons why the idea of Huckabee capturing the nomination is not far-fetched:
1)The inevitable winnowing of the field: Last Friday, October 18th, Senator Sam Brownback dropped out of the race. He’s the first of what will certainly be many to follow. Brownback, a senator from Kansas, had been running on a social conservative platform but failed to garner wide support and campaign financing. Other lesser-known candidates like Tancredo and Alan Keyes are not likely to last much longer either. As these so-con candidates drop out, Huckabee is in an excellent position to attract many of their supporters.
2)The liberals fear him: For all the talk this year about which Republican candidate stands the best chance of beating Hillary, Huckabee is rarely mentioned in conservative circles. Yet, among liberals, he is the one candidate they admit to fearing. Look at these quotes from the Daily Kos, an extreme left-wing group blog:
·“For the electorate, Huckabee might be very compelling. Bush fatigue is attached to Clinton fatigue. The electorate might want to get out of the Bush Clinton double helix that the country has been in for two decades. It seems to me that if he were to get nominated, he could be a very compelling choice for the electorate.”
·“You want to know who the strongest GOP candidate would be, the one that would make me lose sleep at night?
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
The guy is a scary good politician and the more Republican voters see him around the country, the more support he’ll get.”
·“Policy-wise, I think most of the country opposes Governor Huckabee. That's not what scares me. What scares me is that I when I see him speak, I find myself wanting to like him. I figure if I want to like him, knowing who and what he is, people who choose not to be informed may be much more easily swayed towards his candidacy.
Don't get me wrong: no way in hell would I ever vote for the man. He's very conservative, and a major part of the religious right. I don't think that he'd get elected if his policies were what were being voted on. In a general election, where many of the voters don't vote in an informed fashion (think I'm wrong? Look at 2004) but instead rely on their general feelings about a candidate, a Huckabee nomination would be a serious problem for any Democrat because he's funny, clever, and doesn't take himself too seriously.”
3)The conservative base loves him:
·“Huckabee is the most natural campaigner in the bunch. Unlike one member of the top tier, there's no danger that he'll doze off in mid-sentence. Unlike other members of the top-tier, Huckabee's a social conservative's dream. You want someone rock-ribbed on the social issues? Huckabee's your guy. He doesn't even believe in evolution. His taxing and spending in Arkansas may not be every conservative's ideal, but Huckabee probably has fewer policy skeletons in his closet than anyone else in the field.” – Dean Barrett in the Weekly Standard
·“Huckabee floored them. He could do no wrong. His third sentence summarizes the natural advantage that guaranteed him adulation and freed him to talk about whatever he wanted to:
"I stand here not as one who comes to you, but one who comes from you."
To varying extents, everyone else here had to sell himself to the audience, which took time and focus away from their platforms. Huckabee just got down to preaching.
Well, sort of. The first thing he did was drop an Al Gore joke (probably the 14th I've heard here) and then make fun of hippies. After that, though, it was a sermon to a swaying choir. Standing ovations were frequent, sharp whistling pierced the dark air, and the audience sounded like the evangelical congregations I remember from my time in Huckabee's Arkansas. It wasn't just "amen," it was "that's right," and "yes", and "come on, Mike!"
The congregants spent a lot of time on their feet, and I didn't always understand why. But it was clear that these people love the holy rolling populist preacher. Beyond abortion, same-sex marriage and war!, he talked about some off-beat issues like rebuilding America's arms-manufacturing base, "feeding ourselves" (agriculturally speaking) and the Fair Tax. No matter what he said, the audience cheered and cheered.
·“Huckabee has some significant flaws as a candidate. His foreign policy thinking is thin. Some of his policy ideas seem to come off the top of his head…
But Huckabee is something that the party needs. He is a solid conservative who is both temperamentally and substantively different from the conservatives who have led the country over the past few years.
He’s rising in the polls, especially in Iowa. His popularity with the press corps suggests he could catch a free media wave that would put him in the top tier. He deserves to be there.” – David Brooks in the New York Times
4)Huckabee’s popularity in the early voting primary states: A strong start is essential for any candidate hoping to capture the party’s nomination. Iowa hosts the first primary and the latest Rasmussen poll shows Huckabee third with 18%, narrowly trailing Romney (25%) and Thompson (19%). A win in Iowa, or even a strong showing, would introduce Huckabee to a whole host of voters looking for a true conservative. As Dean Barrett states in the Weekly Standard:
Obviously, Huckabee is making a move in Iowa. He has risen from the bottom tier. In fact, he’s solidly in the top tier, at least in Iowa. He has a five point lead over Giuliani and a twelve point lead over McCain in the Ethanol State.
So let’s play this out: If Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa, does he have a chance of going all the way? The governor has a few things working against him. Most notable are the facts that he has no money and even less name recognition. But let’s say he wins Iowa. Will victory in the Land of Ethanol be enough to offset those deficiencies? It’s been said that winning Iowa will be worth $60 million in free media to the victor. When I first heard that, I remember thinking at the time what a stupid and unsupportable assertion that was. Why not $59 million or $61 million? Nevertheless, I pass it along to you to help make a point. Regardless of the precise monetary value of a Huckabee victory in Iowa, Mike Huckabee will become very famous very quickly if he wins there. So then what happens? Well, first off, Huckabee will still have no money, so he’ll have to live off his free media and will be unable to fend off the assaults that his rivals will surely launch. But more important, Republicans across America will get to know a new member of the top tier.
5)Huckabee is the only candidate who Chuck Norris (yes that Chuck Norris) endorses: Yes, you might have thought Norris would have come out in support of Ron Paul, since Ron Paul wants to do away with the Dept. of Homeland Security and replace it with Chuck Norris. Or you might have thought he would have endorsed former Law & Order actor Fred Thompson, since Norris is allegedly suing the NBC series, claiming the names of his right and left legs are Law & Order. But the martial arts and tough guy legend recently wrote:
Though Giuliani might be savvy enough to lead people, Fred Thompson wise enough to wade through the tides of politics, McCain tough enough to fight terrorism and Romney business-minded enough to grow our economy, I believe the only one who has all of the characteristics to lead America forward into the future is ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee…
Part of our backward culture is reflected in the fact that we measure and value people by what they do, instead of first who they are. As a result, we nominate charisma, cast votes for articulation and repeatedly elect too many paper-thin corrupt politicians. Of course, I want a president who gets things done, but I first want one who has lived a life of integrity, commitment, truthfulness and respect. Mike is that man.
Mike hasn't lived an isolated, out-of-touch life like so many politicians. He was raised in Hope, Ark., with a dad who was a firefighter and always had a second job. Mike and his sister grew up poor, not privileged. He was the first person in his family to graduate from high school. And he worked two jobs in college and graduated in two-and-a-half years.
Mike is a committed husband and father. He has always prioritized his family before politics. His wife, two sons and daughter speak his highest praise.
Mike has also faced unique adversity, from helping a young wife endure the trials of spinal cancer to aiding the victims of hurricane Katrina as the governor of Arkansas. He has a heart for helping and will fight for the causes of average citizens. He is known for having a compassionate heart, genuinely caring for all people.
Mike is also a respected and fearless leader, and he does not cower to the cries of any majority or minority.
There might come a time this election cycle when social conservatives will have to compromise their choice for the Republican nomination and cast a vote for Thompson or Romney or McCain. But that time has not yet come; so let’s enjoy Huckabee’s ride a little bit longer before we decide to get off. After all, the ride just might not end until it reaches the White House.
Addendum #2: As IVC Drummer pointed out Huckabee can sport some serious licks on his “Weapon of Mass De-funk-tion”:
Comments
I don't see Huck getting the GOP's act together or standing up to and sticking it to the 'crats the way I see 'Tude-iani. - cdl
If Huck couldn't do it then no one could. - Stephen
Matt! Come on! You touted Mike's Pro-Life status, Fair Tax fiscal policies, fear striking in the hearts of Liberals...but what about his bass playing skills!?!? A key piece to his presidential bid..... http://youtube.com/watch?v=3o1cNQ92W5w / http://youtube.com/watch?v=BxCVRHx0JoI - IVC Drummer
Steph, you can't back that claim. of all candidates, Rudy is the only one that had Gotti and the mafia bosses on the run. - cdl
but IVC's video shows he can handle an axe - cdl
One thing seems to be sure in all of this. Huckabee is the first candidate to come along in many many years who can truly be said to represent the views of conservative Chistians. If Christians, who should form a very solid block of his most ardent supporters, do not get solidly behind him at every opportunity then I cannot even imagine how long it will be before we get another candidate of his caliber to run. Unlike other candidates, Huckabee has solid governmental credentials, a series of well-crafted policy statements and real plans for where he wants to take this country. He also openly admits to having a relationship with his God and Savior, Jesus Christ. Whats's not to like? - Verbatim
I agree, Verbatim. I have always been baffled by the fact that so many Christians seem to put their faith aside when they walk into the voting booth. All the polls show there are tens of millions of Evangelical Christians in the United States which should mean they are the largest voting bloc in the country. Yet, somehow, all this potential power always gets divided up between candidates who do not share the values of Christians or, at best, pay only lip service to what Christians believe in. If Chrisitians, especially Evangelical Christians, ever want to be taken seriously by the Republican Party, or by any other party for that matter, then they had better learn to support those all-too-few candidates that come along and truly support their values. - Jameson
except it's my vote to use as I choose instead of letting a bloc dictate it to me - cdl
You are right about that, CDL, 100%. Still, as Evangelical Christians, we form a natural bloc, even if there is no formal organization or leadership to direct how we vote. As Christians, we have many things in common and share many viewpoints. It would seem that, even without somebody in a bloc telling us which way to vote that we would more or less automatically vote our common interests together. After all, since we are filled with the same Spirit and worship the same God, you would tend to think we would somehow vote more or less alike or at least nearly so. I have followed and participated in the election process for many years and the lack of unity among Christian voters has always surprised me. Unlike other voting groups, it seems like the Christians are the one group that has no recognized or organized leadership to direct the votes. It's odd, in a way but that's how it seems. From my experience, Christians, as a whole, are just as uninformed about the issues as the general public. - Steamboat Willie
my theory is that I want my president to support and defend the constitution which includes freedom of religion for ex but I don't want him to dictate his religion to others; specifically I think Rudy can do that which sorely needs doing, Huck will have a tremendous credibility obstacle to overcome - cdl
Just two quick points. First secular and progressive are not synonyms. Second, this case seems to highlight how much issues don't even matter. We have a popularity contest. I don't want to take away any of the due credit Giuliani gets for his leadership during one of America's toughest times, but he doesn't seem to line up with some of the core values Republican voters stand for and it doesn't seem to matter in the polls. I know it matters to most of us here, but as a country it doesn't seem to. - Alex G.
"I don't see Huck getting the GOP's act together or standing up to and sticking it to the 'crats the way I see 'Tude-iani. " - What does this even mean CDL? - Matthew Cochrane
CDL, in my eyes, Giuliani has far more "credibility" obstacles to overcome than Huckabee. Giuliani has been married three times, and dated his current wife while he was still married to his second. I don't know about you but that raises serious credibility issues with me. If he couldn't keep a vow with his wife, what makes you think he's shooting straight with you now? I see no such credibility issues with Huckabee. OTher than that, he's pro-choice and has personally donated to Planned Parenthood. Doesn't sound like he's too concerned about protecting infants' right to life - a constitutional right by the way. There is also no evidence at all of Huckabee trying to force his religion on others or not defending the Constitutional right of freedom to religion. As far as your concern that Huckabee is not cleaning up the GOP, I would respond that no candidate can do that. Only voters can. And a good start would be to vote for Huckabee. - Matthew Cochrane
Rudy's not a thug u fan though - cdl
Neither is Huckabee. - MC
but you are - cdl
Yes, well, I'm not asking you to vote for me. - MC
you are asking your readers to vote for your man but your values are questionable if you identify yourself with the most despicable college admin/team/coach/former players - cdl
That has got to be the most tortured logic I have ever heard regarding the policies involved in a presidential race . . .
- Sam the Eagle
you got that right - cdl
A vote for huckabee is a vote for cane thugs!!! - the u
On a serious note, I think it would be ingenious for Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson to choose Huckabee as their vice presodent. That would give the whole country plenty of time to get to know Huckabee and really get behind him in another eight years. - Stephen
and if I justifiably question MC's cred based on his loyalties, and MC can question Rudy's, the dems will do the same to stall Huck justifiably or otherwise; but Rudy won't care and he'll turn it back on the dems; the supreme court already decided what is a constitutional right with Roe just like it decided for Bush in 2000; constituional allows serial marriage and is mute on gay marriage; back to thug u, you need to spend some time examining your own beliefs and resultant actions before you start claiming to advise others on how to vote - cdl
alex, the issues don’t matter? really? actually there is one issue that matters a whole lot and that is not letting hillary touch the presidency with a ten foot pole. she is scary enough for voters on both sides of the aisle that voters (democrats and republicans) are willing to compromise on a few issues if that is what it takes to keep her out. a popularity contest – now that’s a joke. this whole election has been a conservative contest. you have all the conservatives at the gop debates trying to convince the american people that they are more conservative than anyone else running for the republicans. each candidate is trying to convice us that they are more conservative than the other. my question is, is there anyone on the democrats side arguing that he/she is more liberal than any of the other democrats? of course not. and the reason why is because liberalism doesn’t sell. the american people don’t want liberalism and they don’t like liberalism. that’s why when liberals get up to speak they lie about their intentions and what they plan to do in the white house. this could not be more true with anyone other than hillary. the democrats who are smart enough to see this could vote for someone like giuliani. he is liberal enough for the liberals, but conservative enough to not be scary. plus there are conservatives who will vote for him because he actually is conservaative in many ways. he isn’t pro-life, but it’s the supreme court, not the president, that can change abortion laws. so many conservatives will feel as if he is as conservative president as they come and also since he recently changed his stance on gun control. check out http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8SE214O0&show_article=1 and http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071015/ap_po/thompson_giuliani_7
and http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8S9RN5O0&show_article=1 and http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1007/Rudys_push_back_plan.html
- D. A.
In The Art of War, Sun Tzu shows the problem Huckabee is likely to encounter: You can exploit five different faults in a leader. If he is willing to die, you can kill him. If he wants to survive, you can capture him. He may have a quick temper. You can then provoke him with insults. ***If he is a puritan***, you can disgrace him. If he loves his people, you can create problems for him. In every situation, look for these five weaknesses. They are common faults in commanders. They always lead to military disaster. To overturn an army, you must kill its general. To do this, you must use these five weaknesses. You must always look for them....And the dems are darned good at it both offensively and defensively. - cdl
Steph, I think cousins should run for Veep. Barrack and Dick Cheney - cdl
btw Bill Clinton had none of Tsu's five faults. Hillary probably has the temper which shows in her recent quote that she can understand Mississippi not having women elected to high office but she can't understand it in Iowa. NOt much press on that quote, btw. - cdl
I don't see Huck as an insulter - cdl
CDL, ask Kerry if Republicans know how to insult. Unfortunately, there will be plenty of dirt thrown no matter who is nominated for the presidency by both parties. Bush didn't have to do the dirty work in '04 because other organizations took care of it. Trust me, there are plenty of people ready to air "dirt" on Clinton too. I'm not saying its right or wrong (I do believe there is a place for negative campaigning actually but, no doubt, it is taken to extremes way too much of the time) but its just a political reality in AMerica right now. - Matthew Cochrane
To vote for someone who doesn't represent your values so you can vote for someone who isults better, just seems crazy to me. - Matthew Cochrane
And about the Thug U thing - get over it CDL. - Matthew Cochrane
Huck will be the only one at the podium vs Hillary if nominated; but I'm also referring to getting things done in office; I'm not telling you who to vote for - cdl
thug u thing; you are shameless - cdl
but I've figured that out btw; the thugs provide job security for the local constabulary by keeping the crime rate up, but I feel sorry for their victims - cdl
a friends response to my Sun Tzu quote, "I agree that what Sun Tzu calls a “delicate sense of honor” is a problem for “strict” conservatives. Classical strategy is, above all, pragmatic, not idealistic. Many “pure” conservatives have this weakness. Interestingly, Sun Tzu’s five flaws are excesses of his five necessary characteristics for a leader. In this case, a delicate sense of honor is an excess of trustworthiness." - cdl
Maybe Huckabee's surprising but limited success reveals something about the electorate. He's not getting a lot of financial backing. Maybe evangelicals don't put their money where their vote is. Rudy and Romney are securing most of the money. Touting values is close and hard to separate from religious affiliation and we don't vote based on religion. It also shows that maybe the conservative social issues aren't the most important ones to most voters after all. And if there isn't strong money there, politicians probably assume it's not such a big issue after all and don't act on those issues. There has to be overwhelming voter support without money and decent voter support with money. I don't see either behind Huckabee but his results are impressive. - cdl
Brownback and McCain are actually good friends so that's not that surprising...Robertson supporting Giuliani is mind-boggling. - Matthew Cochrane
CDL, interestingly I once saw a study done on it...Evangelicals are not the group that supports their candidates the most financially. They are however the group that volunteers the most time to campaign for their favorite candidate the most. Which is why, this study claimed, Dem candidates would have more paid staff but Republican candidates would have more volunteers (because of Evangelicals). The study basically said it evened out in the long run. - Matthew Cochrane
that is interesting Matthew; what I'm thinking candidate's value is the money that gets them the poll takers and high priced help they value for analysis, marketing and retooling; and I think they take the evangelicals for granted - cdl
About Robertson supporting Guiliani...what's your take? Is there money behind that, or does Robertson just want to be on the winning team? - Michelle
Either there is money involved, or he just wants to be on the winning team, or he doesn't know any better. It's hard to tell when you're talking about high-profile names in the SBC. - Stephen
Whoa Steve...PAt Robertson is ordained in the SBc but he has not been a practicing minister/pastor in the SBC for years. His "prophecies" are nothing short of ridiculous and he has largely been relegated to the outskirts of mainstream evangelicalism for years. Robertson needs to step aside or shut up (or both) before he officially joins the ranks of the absolutely absurd like Benny Hinn and the Crouchs. - Matthew Cochrane
Those are my thoughts exactly - Stephen
at rutherford.org, Francis Schaeffer's son Frank says***His father "wanted to put people's lives together again, people who had problems. He wasn't into an issue at all. His "...interests were philosphical. They had to do with history and apologetics." His father would not be part of the Christian Right. He says gay rights was a non-issue and he thinks that, "in terms of the present American climate, we are not going to be able to have all abortions outlawed. It is totally unrealistic to push for that." He also says his father has been used by Dobson and Falwell. And, there is a group whose best interests are served by failure referring to the Christian right.***That's what is also said about Jesse Jackson and Rev. Al Sharpton. Those issue statements line up well with Rudy's positions. - cdl
Frank Schaeffer!!! Frankie's little more than a bitter, spoiled quack these days. He just wrote an autobiography detailing how his parents did a horrible job raising him and how his dad, Francis, used to beat up his mom. A few years back he "converted" to Eastern Orthodoxy, giving up all claims on the evangelicalism he grew up in. He has no idea what he's talking about. He is light years away from his father in terms of intelligence and class. Many of the "Religious Right" he says are "using" his dad's writings and teachings studied directly under his father at L'Abri. I personally consider Francis Schaeffer to be one of the founding fathers of the religious right movement. If the social conservative movement has deviated from Schaeffer's teachings in any way its that we have not gone far enough in carrying out our beliefs. Reading Schaeffer's "Christian MAnifesto" you can come to no other conclusion than Schaeffer was willing to go way further campaigns to make abortion illegal. If you think Schaeffer would in any way support a pro-choice candidate like Giuliani you are fooling yourself. - Matthew Cochrane
lol - cdl
You can read my rview of Schaeffer's Christian Manifesto here: http://www.notconformedthoughts.com/displayone.cfm?docid=2857 - Matthew Cochrane
At least Frank's not a thug u fan - cdl
Not at least . . . At most . . . At most he's not a thug u fan. - Stephen
whatever, a thug u fan has no place impugning someone else's character - cdl
Fine. I'm not a thug u fan so I'll say it. Franky has lost his marbles. - Stephen
I lost mine too then cuz that stuff I quoted made a lot of sense to me - cdl
I do not disagree - Stephen
lol; I knew that was coming - cdl
And since you are a credo, one could question if you ever had them to begin with. loljk - Stephen
you're on a roll now - cdl
I'll let you slide since you aren't a thug u fan - cdl
that's a new argument to add to the list in favor of credobaptism btw: a. the kiss principle; b. occam's razor; and c. the no marbles required principle - cdl