May 2, 2008 Matthew Cochrane, Friday Political Roundup XI: Eleven Random Thoughts on the Current State of American Politics
In honor of the eleventh edition of our Friday Political Roundup, I thought I would share eleven opinions, rants and notes I have concerning the current state of the presidential elections and politics in general. So, in no particular order, here are some of my thoughts:
1) The biggest story no one is talking about? The uncounted delegates of Florida and Michigan. I am continually amazed at how this has not been picked up more by the political pundits. There are so many different ways these badly-managed Democratic contests have affected the current status of the left’s two major candidates, not the least of which is that Obama now stands to win the nomination, not Clinton. Even if we discount the logic that allowing these contests to count would have allowed Hillary to carry both states and allowed her to gain unstoppable momentum and cruise to sweeping victories on Super Tuesday, we’re still left facing the fact that millions of voters in two large states were left without a voice in the nomination of their party’s presidential candidate. Armed rebellions have started over far less.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign team is currently lobbying the superdelegates by making the claim she is leading in the popular vote when the two punished states’ contests are counted. As mLive, a Michigan news agency, recently reported:
After Hillary Clinton's dual victories this week in Pennsylvania and at Michigan's district conventions, Gov. Jennifer Granholm said the Mitten State would be a key factor in her candidate winning the nomination…
Granholm was on message. The Clinton campaign has been pushing the idea to the media, with some success, that after her 9-point win in Pennsylvania, she now leads in the popular vote. That includes Clinton's votes in Michigan and Florida, which she won, but the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripped them of their delegates for holding early primaries.
The official tally is Barack Obama has 14,417,619 votes to Clinton's 13,917,393. With Florida and Michigan, it's 14,993,833 for Obama and 15,116,688 for Clinton.
I still believe this year is the Democrats’ to lose but, if they continue to alienate voters from these two crucial swing states, they just might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Think I’m wrong? A liberal friend of mine from Florida recently confided he was thinking of voting for McCain if his vote didn’t end up counting at the Democratic convention this summer. While McCain’s moderate positions make that an easier pill for him to swallow than if a more conservative GOP candidate was running in the general election, I know the disenfranchisement he feels is powerful for him to even consider such an action. He’s not alone, either. The DNC recently had to return money when Florida donors demanded refunds because their votes were not counted in their state’s primary.
If the Democratic Party doesn’t find a way to satisfy their constituents in these states they might be in for a long election day in November. Beyond that scenario, though, if Barack Obama goes on to win the nomination and the general election in the fall, a huge assist should be credited to the DNC – which might be what they had in mind all along.
2) The GOP’s premature celebration. The other day while going through my inbox I noticed an email sent from a close family member with a brief and simple message. It read, “I think we can beat him now.” The “we” referred to Republicans and the “him” referred to Barack Obama. Far from being alone, I get the sense that many conservatives think they can smell blood. McCain, sans competition, has been able to spend the past few months visiting troops in Iraq, touring the country, raising funds and, most importantly, resting up for the grueling home stretch this fall. Meanwhile, scandal after scandal is breaking out on the left. Obama has been tarnished by racist remarks made by his former pastor of twenty years, previous dealings with domestic terrorists and his own infamous “bitter” remarks (more on that later).
While I don’t deny this respite has benefited McCain more than his competitors, it is far too early to chalk up November’s contest to the Republicans.
There are three reasons to believe McCain’s days of smooth sailing are coming to an abrupt end: 1) He’s still trailing in the polls. Despite his two major opponents acting pettier than teenage girls in a catfight, McCain still has been unable to grab a convincing lead. In the latest round of polls following Pennsylvania’s primary, Hillary holds a commanding nine percentage point margin over McCain while Barack still clings to a much narrower two-percentage point lead. If McCain can’t grab a lead now, during the mud-slinging contest taking place on the left, Republicans are probably in for a long fall; 2) The eventual Democratic winner, absent a blood bath on the convention floor, will undoubtedly experience a bump in the polls after his/her win in the wake of a tsunami of positive media reports. Expect it; and 3) Scandals breaking on opponents one month before election? Good. Scandals breaking six to eight months before an election? Bad. There’s still far too much time for the American public to process, forgive and, yes, even forget Hillary’s sniper fire yarns and Barack Obama’s racist pastor and “bitter” remarks. So, yes, it's good for Republicans that the Democrats are airing their dirty laundry for all the world to see but don't get cocky.
3) McCain on War, Terrorism and the Middle East
Here he defines success in Iraq and Afghanistan:
4) Where are they now? Mike Huckabee recently launched Huck PAC, an organization designed to help Republican candidates “who are passionate advocates for tax reform, a strong national defense, real border security, life, the family, less government and individual liberty.”Basically, it hopes to raise money and support from conservative activists across the country and then donate that money to local Republican candidates running for office. A good idea; I hope it’s effective.
No. 10: There weren't as many Osmonds as he thought.
No. 9: Got tired of the corkscrew landings of his campaign plane while under fire
No. 8: As a lifelong hunter, I didn't want to miss the start of varmint season.
No. 7: There wasn't room for two Christian leaders in the presidential race
No. 6: I was upset that no one bothered to search my passport files.
No. 5: I'd rather get fat, grow a beard and try for the Nobel prize.
No. 4: Got tired of wearing a dark suit and tie, and I wanted to kick back in a light colored suit and tie.
No. 3: When my wife realized I couldn't win the GOP nomination, my fundraising dried up.
No. 2: I took a bad fall at a campaign rally and broke my hair.
And the No. 1 reason Romney dropped out: His campaign relied on a flawed campaign strategy that as Utah goes, so goes the nation.
Surprisingly funny, no?
5) Hillary Clinton on The O’Reilly Factor:
Part 1
Part 2
Some of us love Hyde Park for its diversity and quirkiness, as there are those who love Cambridge and Berkeley. But it is among the more academic and liberal places around. When Obama goes to a church infused with James Cone-style liberation theology, when he makes ill-informed comments about working-class voters, when he bowls a 37 for crying out loud, voters are going to wonder if he’s one of them. Obama has to address those doubts, and he has done so poorly up to now.
It was inevitable that the period of “Yes We Can!” deification would come to an end. It was not inevitable that Obama would now look so vulnerable. He’ll win the nomination, but in a matchup against John McCain, he is behind in Florida, Missouri and Ohio, and merely tied in must-win states like Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. A generic Democrat now beats a generic Republican by 13 points, but Obama is trailing his own party. One in five Democrats say they would vote for McCain over Obama.
Behind closed doors in San Francisco, elitism’s epicenter, Barack Obama showed his elitism, attributing the emotional, spiritual and cultural values of working-class, “lunch pail” Pennsylvanians to economic woes…
At match points, when Hillary fights like a cornered raccoon, Obama retreats into law professor mode. The elitism that Americans dislike is not about family money or connections — J.F.K. and W. never would have been elected without them. In the screwball movie genre that started during the last Depression, there was a great tradition of the millionaire who was cool enough to relate to the common man — like Cary Grant’s C.K. Dexter Haven in “The Philadelphia Story.”
What turns off voters is the detached egghead quality that they tend to equate with a wimpiness, wordiness and a lack of action — the same quality that got the professorial and superior Adlai Stevenson mocked by critics as Adelaide. The new attack line for Obama rivals is that he’s gone from J.F.K. to Dukakis. (Just as Dukakis chatted about Belgian endive, Obama chatted about Whole Foods arugula in Iowa.)
Obama did not grow up in cosseted circumstances. “Now when is the last time you’ve seen a president of the United States who just paid off his loan debt?” Michelle Obama asked Tuesday at Haverford College, referring to Barack’s student loans while speaking in the shadow of the mansions depicted in “The Philadelphia Story.”
But his exclusive Hawaiian prep school and years in the Ivy League made him a charter member of the elite, along with the academic experts he loves to have in the room.
But just how damaging was Obama’s “bitter” remark? Real Clear Politics columnist David Paul Kuhn believes they destroyed any chance Obama had of winning in November. He explains:
It's difficult to underestimate the enduring impact of Barack Obama's "bitter" remark. The day after John Kerry blurted that he "actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it" Vice President Dick Cheney ripped into the Democratic nominee and GOP strategists were already envisioning a new ad featuring the gaffe, intent on undercutting Kerry's character as a flip-flopper.
That week, four years ago, there were no banner headlines in major American newspapers declaring a turning point in the presidential race. Soon after the remark Kerry took a break from the campaign and skied at a resort in Idaho, a trip that added the air of elitism to Kerry's already sundered grit.
The Bush campaign had effectively won the campaign. It was only mid March.
7) Barack Obama’s nightmare – that won’t go away. The controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama’s pastor for over twenty years, refuses to go away. Rev. Wright recently appeared at the National Press Club and confirmed his insane rants and ravings were the same in and out of context. He confirmed his beliefs that the U.S. government invented the AIDS virus as a way to kill members of the black community and that drugs were intentionally distributed to black neighborhoods so young black men could be imprisoned. His lunacy knows no bounds.
Wright’s press club appearance, and a similar one in Michigan, brought up the controversy all over again. What is now being analyzed by pundits, and the public, is Obama’s constantly changing response to Wright and his mad ravings.
In an NBC interview Barack and his wife, Michelle, said it was time to move forward:
I loved Michelle’s response, “This conversation doesn’t help my kids. You know, it doesn’t help kids out there who are looking for us to make decisions and choices about how we’re going to better fund education.” Uh, you’re right Michelle, it has nothing to do with education; how perceptive of you. It has to do with evaluating your husband’s judgment, character and value system. If Barack survives the Democratic nomination, his advisers will need to hide all microphones and cameras from his wife. Next to his former pastor, she may well prove to be his biggest liability.
8) Money, money, money. In the twenty-four hours after Hillary Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania she hauled in ten million dollars from online fundraising efforts, shattering the previous record for a single day’s haul or, so we’ve been told. After Pennsylvania’s win, reporters immediately began to question whether she would be able to compete with Obama in Indiana and North Carolina. Politico gives us the rest of the story:
The account of how the Clinton camp squelched that potential storyline is a lesson in successful campaign spin, a case of shaping favorable media coverage by crafting a narrative too compelling to overlook yet also impossible to independently verify.
It made no difference that the details didn’t always add up — wide variations in the numbers of new donors; a conflicting timeline of when the money was actually raised. It was the eye-popping $10 million figure — the most ever claimed in a 24-hour period — that dominated the news cycle.
In Lubbock, Texas – Lubbock Comma Texas, the heart of Texas conservatism – they dislike President Bush. He has lost them. I was there and saw it. Confusion has been followed by frustration has turned into resentment, and this is huge. Everyone knows the president's poll numbers are at historic lows, but if he is over in Lubbock, there is no place in this country that likes him. I made a speech and moved around and I was tough on him and no one – not one – defended or disagreed. I did the same in North Carolina recently, and again no defenders. I did the same in Fresno, Calif., and no defenders, not one.
He has left on-the-ground conservatives – the local right-winger, the town intellectual reading Burke and Kirk, the old Reagan committeewoman – feeling undefended, unrepresented and alone.
This will have impact down the road.
I finally understand the party nostalgia for Reagan. Everyone speaks of him now, but it wasn't that way in 2000, or 1992, or 1996, or even '04.
I think it is a manifestation of dislike for and disappointment in Mr. Bush. It is a turning away that is a turning back. It is a looking back to conservatism when conservatism was clear, knew what it was, was grounded in the facts of the world.
The reasons for the quiet break with Mr. Bush: spending, they say first, growth in the power and size of government, Iraq. I imagine some of this: a fine and bitter conservative sense that he has never had to stand in his stockinged feet at the airport holding the bin, being harassed. He has never had to live in the world he helped make, the one where grandma's hip replacement is setting off the beeper here and the child is crying there. And of course as a former president, with the entourage and the private jets, he never will. I bet conservatives don't like it.
10) GOP VP Speculation. Here’s my official list, in order, of who I think stands be chosen as John McCain’s running mate:
1. Mark Sanford – former governor of South Carolina, popular, very conservative
2. Tim Pawlenty – Minnesota governor, relatively young, strong social conservative, popular in swing states like Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin
3. Condoleeza Rice – strengthens foreign policy credentials of ticket, female minority, popular with conservatives
4. Mitt Romney – former Massachusetts governor and GOP presidential candidate, popular with conservative media, would not deliver any particular state to McCain, strong dislike within McCain’s camp of Romney’s former campaign staff
5. Marsha Blackburn– popular and conservaitve congresswoman from Tennessee, young, female
6. Charlie Crist – popular Florida governor, moderate conservative, would definitely give McCain Florida
7. Joe Lieberman – senator from Connecticut, would solidly deliver almost all independents in McCain’s camp but would probably alienate too many conservatives, close friend of McCain
Anybody you like or dislike on the list? Have any suggestions for the Arizona senator?
11) Supreme Court Smackdown. Finally, Supreme Court Justice Scalia was recently given a raw deal on one of my favorite liberal blogs and, to shed light on some of his more brilliant opinions, I thought I would include his recent take on a death penalty case before the Supreme Court. After Justice Stephens issued his opinion, Scalia gave us the pleasure of a good, old-fashioned smackdown – judicial branch-style:
But actually none of this really matters. As JUSTICE STEVENS explains, “ ‘objective evidence, though of great importance, [does] not wholly determine the controversy, for the Constitution contemplates that in the end our own judgment will be brought to bear on the question of the acceptability of the death penalty under the Eighth Amendment.’ ” Ante, at 14 (quoting Atkins v. Virginia, 536 U. S. 304, 312 (2002); emphasis added; some internal quotation marks omitted). “I have relied on my own experience in reaching the conclusion that the imposition of the death penalty” is unconstitutional. Ante, at 17 (emphasis added).
Purer expression cannot be found of the principle of rule by judicial fiat. In the face of JUSTICE STEVENS’ experience, the experience of all others is, it appears, of little consequence. The experience of the state legislatures and the Congress—who retain the death penalty as a form of punishment—is dismissed as “the product of habit and inattention rather than an acceptable deliberative process.” Ante, at 8. The experience of social scientists whose studies indicate that the death penalty deters crime is relegated to a footnote. Ante, at 10, n. 13. The experience of fellow citizens who support the death penalty is described, with only the most thinly veiled condemnation, as stemming from a “thirst for vengeance.” Ante, at 11. It is JUSTICE STEVENS’ experience that reigns over all.
I take no position on the desirability of the death penalty, except to say that its value is eminently debatable and the subject of deeply, indeed passionately, held views—which means, to me, that it is preeminently not a matter to be resolved here. And especially not when it is explicitly permitted by the Constitution.
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Today marks two years since I started writing on this web site. A close friend was gracious and kind enough to set everything up on the technical side so all I have had to do is write. Two years have gone by and I’m still writing, so either I have a lot to say or I like hearing myself talk. You decide. Anyhow, here are some of the things I’ve learned along the way:
